Play The Odds

Introduction

Odds analysis in cash games is pretty straight forward. The blinds aren’t rising, so you don’t have to worry about getting blinded out. Plus, you don’t have to worry about getting short stacked because you can always buy in for more. In sit and gos, however, just playing using odds analysis can be a recipe for disaster if you don’t leverage them with your basic need to survive in the sit and go. In this article, I’m going to try to lay out some ground rules on how to use odds analysis in sit and gos.
Early Rounds (The first three rounds on most sites)

In the early rounds of the tournament, you should always calculate your pot odds and consider playing the hand from the cutoff seat and the button. You will have position throughout the hand, and it gives you the possibility of flopping a well concealed monster hand. Of course, you want to be fairly certain that the players yet to act haven’t been too aggressive and that you will be able to see the flop for as cheaply as you calculate.

From the button or cutoff seat, you should see a flop regardless of your holdings if you can get 4 to 1 odds (3 limpers) or better. For odds less than that, you should be looking to play marginal hands with 2.5 odds or less (2 limpers or less) and increasing your hand requirements as the odds drop.

When you enter these hands for the pot odds, be sure that your strategy is to either hit two pair or greater or check the hand. This is important. Unless you have a legitimate single pair (Ace, King, Queen), you should not bet post flop and you should fold to any bets. If you hit top pair with a pair of sevens, for instance, you will likely not get multiple limpers to fold, and you will be an underdog to hands like two overcards and a straight draw. Be careful not to throw money away early in the tournament because you got good odds pre-flop and flopped a mediocre hand.

If it is folded down to you in the small blind, at minimum, you should complete the big blind with anything in the first two rounds because of the 3 to 1 odds. It’s not normally a good idea to get involved in aggressive small blind-big blind confrontations early in the game. If the big blind is overaggressive, just let them have the chips and look to trap them later in the game. In most cases you will want to try to limp twice as you may have just run into a legitimate hand where the big blind should be betting.

When raised in the big and small blinds, odds should be considered, but there two other important factors to consider. You are facing an aggressive opponent and you will be out of position the rest of the way. Complicating your decision is the fact that unless someone has made a large raise, you will normally have pretty good odds to call. If a player raises three times the big blind, the player in the big blind will be looking at 2.25 to 1 odds if it folds down to him and 3.5 to 1 odds with a caller out of the small blinds.

Personally, I need some sort of hand to continue, and I am more apt to fold and wait to use the chips for late position bluffs or doubling up. However, it is not a stretch to believe that you can win that bet one out of three times, and I don’t consider it a bad play when I see players flip over Q9o (or something like that) given 3 to 1 odds. Technically, you can calculate the proper calls for heads up in the big blind using a percentage chart, so that may be an option. Just remember that the raiser’s hand is probably better than random, so you will need to discount your chances of winning.

In the early rounds, I would make all post flop decisions by the book as far as odds go. You shouldn’t be short stacked and you have the ability to play your normal game.
Middle Rounds
In the middle rounds, you should begin to tighten up a bit pre-flop and resist the temptation to call simply because you have good pot odds unless you have a lot of chips. In many cases, limping won’t be an option in late position, and you can almost guarantee that the button or one of the blinds will raise if it gets around to them. There aren’t a lot of uncontested pots in the middle rounds, because people are beginning to jockey for position. Knowing this, you should be fairly certain that you will be able to get any pot odds limps for your price.
In this stage of the tournament, you will need to start saving chips and begin to think more about making effective bets when you can be the aggressor. Making a few calls pre-flop because of pot odds can put you on a short stack in two or three hands, so be especially careful not to get overzealous with it.
Post flop, large stack players should continue to play by the book, and short stack players should continue to wait for their opportunity to get their chips in. As usual, the tough decisions come for the player with the average/middle stack.
Together, with our friends at pokerlistings.com, we have developed the following strategy for the middle stack player. (I’ve separated the text so that both pokerlistings.com and sitngodomination.com deserve credit.)

Considering the Negative Implied Odds

Disregarding pot odds
Pot odds and implied odds help you decide whether a certain type of play (drawing for a flush, for example) will be profitable over time or not. When you use these tools you can justify calling 1/4 of the pot with a 1/4 chance of winning the hand. However, the pot odds don’t tell the whole story, especially not if you’re playing in a Sit-and-Go tournament. One very important factor that lots of poker players fail to consider is what will happen if you lose, and get knocked out of the tournament. You will not just lose your buy-in; you will also lose the chance of winning several times your buy in. These negative implied odds must be considered when you’re about to play a drawing hand in a Sit-and-Go tournament.

On the bubble
When you’re playing in a Sit-and-Go tournament you’re never far from the money. The odds adjustment you make should represent your current position in the tournament. For example, you might be the 5th largest player of 6 remaining in a 10 player Sit-and-Go tournament. The top 3 positions pay out, and 3rd place would give you double your buy-in. When you have a middle stack, you should adjust your pot odds needed by multiplying them by 150% as just surviving until the money is distributed has value. You are significantly affecting your chances of making the money by calling the draw with a middle stack. Consequently, in a situation like the one mentioned above, you would need 1 to 6 pot odds when you have a 1/4 chance of hitting your hand.

Play fewer draws
You have to keep in mind that the long run consists of many disjoint short runs. If these short runs are all (or mainly) Sit-and-Go’s, the regular pot odds calculations will be misleading since 4th place and below (the bottom 60%), usually won’t give you any money at all. This doesn’t mean that you should change your strategy all together. You should still play aggressively, and still attempt semi-bluffs. The adjustment you have to make is simply to play fewer drawing hands in Sit-and-Go tournaments.


Provided by PokerListings.com in conjunction with sitngodomination.com

While there is a mathematical way to determine the value, this simple adjustment seems to be effective and perform well in game situations. If someone has a pure mathematical solution that is easy to apply, please let me know and I will post it to the site.
In the Money
Once in the money, the play tends to change as everyone is now relieved to be in the money. The decisions become slightly clearer and the odds can be a powerful tool.
Pre-flop, I would once again begin to use pot odds pre-flop to help determine my playable hands. You will need to do so, since in most situations, no one will have a really strong hand. Pot odds will help you get in and win more hands. If you can get 3 to 1 odds, I would be in the pot with all but the worst hands pre-flop.
Post flop, play by the book with anything but a short stack. You may not have the stomach to short stack yourself chasing a draw, but I don’t mind in this situation since I am going for first at all costs. If you do mind, then you should continue to play a tighter game. Don’t be afraid to call all in bets if you have a flush draw (or similar outs) and your opponent is short stacked regardless of the odds.